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Sudtirol 2–1 Pisa

← Serie B 2022 Β· Sun, Sep 4, 02:15 PM UTC Β· ref: I. Pezzuto

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pisa win38%2.53
Draw31%3.10
Sudtirol win30%3.32

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sudtirol +0.2554%1.80
Pisa +0.2546%2.13

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under59%1.63
Over41%2.38

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

23'⚽Artur IoniΘ›Δƒ Β· Pisa
35'⚽ (pen)Matteo Rover · Sudtirol
44'🟨Simone Davì · Sudtirol
45'🟨Marco Pompetti · Sudtirol
63'⚽ (pen)Matteo Rover · Sudtirol
66'🟨Pietro Beruatto · Pisa
75'🟨Marius Marin · Pisa
80'🟨Mirko Carretta · Sudtirol

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
7Shots12
6On target1
7Corners5
19Fouls23
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricSudtirolPisa
accuracy ratio (last 10)β€”0.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.190.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.190.34
blown lead rate (last 20)β€”0.10
box share (last 5)0.610.64
cards avg (last 5)β€”1.40
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStadio Marco Druso
coach days34.003.00
comeback rate (last 20)β€”0.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)β€”0.15
corner diff avg (last 5)β€”1.40
corners against avg (last 5)β€”4.20
corners for avg (last 5)β€”5.60
corners volatility (last 10)β€”2.06
defensive leak (last 5)β€”0.15
dominance (last 5)β€”0.51
elo1459.511501.25
elo momentum (last 5)β€”-20.48
eye test v1-1.100.38
eye trend v1β€”0.48
first sub minute (last 10)44.6756.80
form points (last 5)β€”4.00
goal diff avg (last 5)β€”-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)β€”2.20
goals for avg (last 5)β€”1.80
goals volatility (last 10)β€”1.16
h2 goals (last 10)β€”0.60
ht lead rate (last 20)β€”0.40
keeper form v1β€”0.61
league points0.001.00
league rank20.0018.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.005.00
matches since win3.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.6771.60
possession avg (last 5)46.6751.80
rest days6.816.81
season ppg0.000.33
shot diff avg (last 5)β€”1.00
shots for avg (last 5)β€”13.00
skill v10.15-0.32
sot against avg (last 5)6.335.20
sot for avg (last 10)β€”3.80
sot for avg (last 3)2.005.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.005.20
squad age27.8926.21
state index-0.57-0.44
sterile dominance v10.27-0.48
threat rate (last 10)β€”0.25
threat rate (last 3)0.210.28
threat rate (last 5)0.210.29
venue ppg (last 5)β€”0.60