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Bari 2–2 Spal

← Serie B 2022 Β· Sat, Sep 3, 12:00 PM UTC Β· ref: A. Rapuano

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bari win45%2.13
Draw28%3.40
Spal win26%3.79

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bari βˆ’0.2553%1.82
Spal βˆ’0.2547%2.10

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under51%1.91
Over49%1.97

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'⚽Walid Cheddira · Bari
12'🟨Christian Dalle Mura · Spal
36'🟨Mattia Maita · Bari
44'🟨Lorenzo Dickmann · Spal
45'⚽Mirco Antenucci · Bari
47'🟨Nicola Bellomo · Bari
55'🟨Biagio Meccariello · Spal
63'⚽Andrea La Mantia · Spal
69'⚽Simone Rabbi · Spal

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
15Shots18
7On target5
7Corners5
13Fouls14
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricBariSpal
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.450.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.480.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.510.39
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
box share (last 5)0.710.58
cards avg (last 5)2.203.80
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStadio Comunale San Nicola
coach days429.00245.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.170.12
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.40-1.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.607.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.205.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.831.90
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.07
dominance (last 5)0.510.47
elo1543.561438.48
elo momentum (last 5)29.2133.50
eye test v10.740.32
eye trend v10.22-0.04
first sub minute (last 10)61.0058.80
form points (last 5)9.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.970.84
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.25
keeper form v10.780.61
league points5.004.00
league rank10.0013.00
matches since blank5.007.00
matches since clean sheet4.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.0075.40
possession avg (last 5)55.2050.80
rest days5.726.72
scorer concentration0.40β€”
season ppg1.671.33
shot diff avg (last 5)0.20-2.60
shots for avg (last 5)12.4013.00
skill v10.74-0.05
sot against avg (last 5)5.805.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.404.60
sot for avg (last 3)5.334.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.605.00
squad age29.7026.61
state index0.550.11
sterile dominance v10.68-0.11
threat rate (last 10)0.190.27
threat rate (last 3)0.230.22
threat rate (last 5)0.220.26
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.20