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Ascoli 0–0 Cittadella

← Serie B 2022 · Sat, Sep 3, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Meraviglia

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ascoli win38%2.56
Cittadella win31%3.27
Draw31%3.20

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cittadella −0.2555%1.79
Ascoli −0.2545%2.15

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under57%1.69
Over43%2.27

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'🟨Dario Del Fabro · Cittadella
24'🟨Daniele Donnarumma · Cittadella
29'🟨Fabrizio Caligara · Ascoli
41'🟨Nicola Pavan · Cittadella
45'🟨Cedric Gondo · Ascoli
45'🟨Raúl Asencio · Cittadella
49'🟥Raúl Asencio · Cittadella
52'🟨Fabrizio Caligara · Ascoli
52'🟥Fabrizio Caligara · Ascoli
90'🟨Eric Botteghin · Ascoli
90'🟨Dario Del Fabro · Cittadella
90'🟨Mamadou Tounkara · Cittadella
90'🟥Dario Del Fabro · Cittadella

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
9Shots14
3On target2
2Corners5
14Fouls22
4Yellow cards6
1Red cards2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAscoliCittadella
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.26
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.620.59
cards avg (last 5)2.002.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca
coach days64.00429.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.190.11
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.00-1.20
corners against avg (last 5)6.805.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.804.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.591.79
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.10
dominance (last 5)0.520.45
elo1515.971478.87
elo momentum (last 5)18.111.38
eye test v10.35-0.36
eye trend v1-0.130.31
first sub minute (last 10)57.5055.10
form points (last 5)10.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.800.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.351.20
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.30
keeper form v10.810.64
league points7.004.00
league rank6.0012.00
matches since blank3.003.00
matches since clean sheet5.004.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.8073.20
possession avg (last 5)52.2047.80
rest days6.725.72
scorer concentration0.60—
season ppg2.331.33
shot diff avg (last 5)1.60-2.40
shots for avg (last 5)12.4011.60
skill v10.26-0.44
sot against avg (last 5)4.205.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.603.40
sot for avg (last 3)4.003.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.803.40
squad age28.3526.94
state index0.32-0.29
sterile dominance v10.02-0.32
threat rate (last 10)0.290.24
threat rate (last 3)0.230.33
threat rate (last 5)0.260.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.80