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Perugia 1–3 Bari

← Serie B 2022 · Sun, Aug 28, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: S. Sozza

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Perugia win40%2.47
Draw30%3.20
Bari win30%3.29

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bari −0.2553%1.83
Perugia −0.2547%2.09

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under59%1.64
Over41%2.37

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'🟨Cristian Dell'Orco · Perugia
10'⚽Michael Folorunsho · Bari
33'🟨Giacomo Ricci · Bari
42'🟨Christian Kouan · Perugia
54'⚽Walid Cheddira · Bari
55'🟨Filippo Sgarbi · Perugia
57'⚽Luca Strizzolo · Perugia
61'🟨Marco Olivieri · Perugia
63'🟨Filippo Sgarbi · Perugia
63'🟥Filippo Sgarbi · Perugia
65'🟨Tiago Casasola · Perugia
65'🟨Giacomo Ricci · Bari
65'🟥Giacomo Ricci · Bari
67'🟨Valerio Di Cesare · Bari
68'🟨Andrea D'Errico · Bari
69'⚽Mirco Antenucci · Bari

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
22Shots10
8On target6
9Corners3
16Fouls16
5Yellow cards4
1Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricPerugiaBari
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.42
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.170.47
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.230.48
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.720.61
cards avg (last 5)2.602.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Renato Curi
coach days88.00423.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.040.17
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.40-1.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.805.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.404.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.791.97
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.10
dominance (last 5)0.400.53
elo1496.931527.28
elo momentum (last 5)-8.035.88
eye test v1-0.800.66
eye trend v1-0.390.21
first sub minute (last 10)50.4059.80
form points (last 5)5.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.401.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.880.84
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.30
keeper form v10.580.70
matches since blank0.004.00
matches since clean sheet0.003.00
matches since win3.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)69.0086.50
possession avg (last 5)47.0056.20
rest days8.009.00
season ppg0.501.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-5.402.00
shots for avg (last 5)12.2012.40
skill v1-0.871.30
sot against avg (last 5)5.005.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.704.00
sot for avg (last 3)1.674.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.005.20
squad age27.2729.63
state index-0.27-0.02
sterile dominance v1-0.481.01
threat rate (last 10)0.230.19
threat rate (last 3)0.210.20
threat rate (last 5)0.250.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.80