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Palermo 2–3 Ascoli

← Serie B 2022 · Sat, Aug 27, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: D. Minelli

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Palermo win41%2.34
Draw29%3.30
Ascoli win29%3.41

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ascoli −0.2551%1.91
Palermo −0.2549%1.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under53%1.83
Over47%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

27'⚽Cedric Gondo · Ascoli
32'🟨Roberto Crivello · Palermo
36'⚽Matteo Brunori · Palermo
45'🟨Cedric Gondo · Ascoli
45'⚽Cedric Gondo · Ascoli
52'⚽Cedric Gondo · Ascoli
60'🟨Nicola Valente · Palermo
63'⚽Jacopo Segre · Palermo
76'🟨Francesco Donati · Ascoli
82'🟨Nicola Leali · Ascoli
89'🟨Nicola Valente · Palermo
89'🟥Nicola Valente · Palermo

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
11Shots9
7On target5
12Corners2
10Fouls20
3Yellow cards3
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricPalermoAscoli
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.510.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.500.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.510.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.10
box share (last 5)0.580.60
cards avg (last 5)2.402.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Renzo Barbera
coach days26.0057.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.12
corner diff avg (last 5)1.00-0.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.205.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.205.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.602.51
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.05
dominance (last 5)0.540.55
elo1579.861502.20
elo momentum (last 5)10.6017.45
eye test v10.310.06
eye trend v1-0.33-0.01
first sub minute (last 10)66.5058.10
form points (last 5)9.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.600.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.481.23
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.40
keeper form v1—0.82
matches since blank14.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.004.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.6077.00
possession avg (last 5)48.8051.80
rest days8.007.00
season ppg2.002.00
shot diff avg (last 5)2.003.00
shots for avg (last 5)13.0014.40
skill v10.020.16
sot against avg (last 5)3.003.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.704.40
sot for avg (last 3)5.334.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.804.20
squad age27.5228.49
state index0.420.29
sterile dominance v10.29-0.11
threat rate (last 10)0.250.30
threat rate (last 3)0.230.27
threat rate (last 5)0.210.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.20