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Parma Calcio 1913 2–2 Bari

← Serie B 2022 · Fri, Aug 12, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: D. Massa

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Parma Calcio 1913 win48%2.06
Draw29%3.33
Bari win23%4.20

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bari −0.552%1.85
Parma Calcio 1913 −0.548%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under52%1.85
Over48%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'🟨Emanuele Terranova · Bari
3'⚽Dennis Man · Parma Calcio 1913
8'🟨Nahuel Estévez · Parma Calcio 1913
11'⚽ (pen)Mirco Antenucci · Bari
35'⚽Michael Folorunsho · Bari
38'🟨Lautaro Valenti · Parma Calcio 1913
38'🟨Walid Cheddira · Bari
45'🟨Valentin Mihăilă · Parma Calcio 1913
45'⚽Valentin Mihăilă · Parma Calcio 1913
54'🟨Adrián Bernabé · Parma Calcio 1913
79'🟨

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score2
10Shots9
6On target5
6Corners3
15Fouls10
5Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricParma Calcio 1913Bari
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.52
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.49
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
box share (last 5)0.60—
cards avg (last 5)3.203.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Ennio Tardini
Alessandro Mallamo
· Bari
90'🟨Enrico Del Prato · Parma Calcio 1913
coach days11.00407.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d0.000.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.16
corner diff avg (last 5)2.20-2.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.005.60
corners for avg (last 5)7.203.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.682.17
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.06
dominance (last 5)0.510.51
elo1497.411526.63
elo momentum (last 5)-23.9121.48
eye test v1-0.300.18
eye trend v10.130.31
first sub minute (last 10)54.8060.40
form points (last 5)4.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.340.84
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.30
keeper form v10.78—
matches since blank3.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.40—
possession avg (last 5)53.4055.40
rest days30.0030.00
shot diff avg (last 5)1.401.00
shots for avg (last 5)11.4011.40
skill v10.57—
sot against avg (last 5)3.803.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.004.10
sot for avg (last 3)4.335.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.404.60
squad age24.76—
state index-0.180.30
sterile dominance v10.611.15
threat rate (last 10)0.210.19
threat rate (last 3)0.220.18
threat rate (last 5)0.210.17
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.80