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Trabzonspor 4–2 Ankaragücü

← Süper Lig 2023 · Sun, May 26, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Karaoğlan

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ankaragücü win41%2.38
Trabzonspor win34%2.80
Draw25%3.88

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Trabzonspor +0.2553%1.81
Ankaragücü +0.2547%2.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over58%1.64
Under42%2.33

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

22'🟨Rayyan Baniya · Trabzonspor
25'⚽ (pen)Anastasios Chatzigiovanis · Ankaragücü
54'🟨Bahadır Han Güngördü · Ankaragücü
63'⚽Edin Višća · Trabzonspor
68'🟨Uroš Radaković · Ankaragücü
78'⚽Ali Sowe · Ankaragücü
86'🟨Kazımcan Karataş · Ankaragücü
87'⚽Enis Destan · Trabzonspor
90'🟨Muhammet Taha Tepe · Trabzonspor
90'⚽Enis Destan · Trabzonspor
90'⚽ (pen)

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
12Shots15
5On target8
3Corners6
6Fouls12
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricTrabzonsporAnkaragücü
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.610.53
cards avg (last 5)1.202.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venuePapara Park
Enis Destan
· Trabzonspor
coach days238.00238.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.210.05
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.601.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.803.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.204.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.972.53
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.09
dominance (last 5)0.440.52
elo1636.221509.25
elo momentum (last 5)19.41-23.61
eye test v1-0.180.29
eye trend v1-0.360.06
first sub minute (last 10)58.9056.00
form points (last 5)12.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.00-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals for avg (last 5)2.000.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.550.95
h2 goals (last 10)1.500.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.900.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.15
keeper form v10.640.63
league points74.0049.00
league rank4.0018.00
matches since blank6.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.4082.20
possession avg (last 5)53.2054.40
rest days8.008.00
scorer concentration0.260.24
season ppg1.641.09
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.001.00
shots for avg (last 5)10.0014.40
skill v10.280.36
solidity v10.610.02
sot against avg (last 5)3.204.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.904.90
sot for avg (last 3)3.335.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.005.00
squad age28.2128.51
state index0.52-0.52
sterile dominance v10.810.14
threat rate (last 10)0.240.26
threat rate (last 3)0.200.27
threat rate (last 5)0.200.29
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.40
xg against avg (last 5)1.161.27
xg for avg (last 5)0.961.11