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Karagumruk 3–1 Samsunspor

← Süper Lig 2023 · Sat, May 25, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Türkmen

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Karagumruk win44%2.18
Samsunspor win31%3.10
Draw25%3.75

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Karagumruk −0.2550%1.93
Samsunspor −0.2550%1.93

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over56%1.70
Under44%2.19

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

15'🟨Tonio Teklić · Karagumruk
39'🟨Haluk Mustafa Tan · Samsunspor
42'⚽Marcão · Karagumruk
50'⚽Ryan Mendes · Karagumruk
57'⚽Soner Aydoğdu · Samsunspor
70'🟨Valentin Eysseric · Karagumruk
72'🟥Yunus Emre Çift · Samsunspor
90'⚽Güven Yalçın · Karagumruk

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
13Shots12
7On target5
2Corners7
12Fouls9
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKaragumrukSamsunspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.24
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.24
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.25
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
box share (last 5)0.600.59
cards avg (last 5)1.602.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAtatürk Olimpiyat Stadı
coach days85.00237.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.160.11
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.402.60
corners against avg (last 5)6.603.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.205.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.412.49
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.17
dominance (last 5)0.510.54
elo1521.771518.50
elo momentum (last 5)-6.27-12.70
eye test v10.66-0.60
eye trend v1-0.25-0.02
first sub minute (last 10)52.9050.50
form points (last 5)4.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)2.401.40
goals for avg (last 5)2.200.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.070.95
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.20
keeper form v10.640.76
league points45.0051.00
league rank20.0016.00
matches since blank7.001.00
matches since clean sheet15.008.00
matches since win4.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.4075.40
possession avg (last 5)46.2048.00
rest days6.886.88
scorer concentration0.190.27
season ppg1.001.13
shot diff avg (last 5)0.801.80
shots for avg (last 5)14.8010.00
skill v10.17-0.29
solidity v1-0.620.88
sot against avg (last 5)4.403.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.702.70
sot for avg (last 3)4.002.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.203.00
squad age30.2827.48
state index-0.36-0.43
sterile dominance v1-0.82-0.12
threat rate (last 10)0.300.24
threat rate (last 3)0.270.19
threat rate (last 5)0.340.24
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.20
xg against avg (last 5)1.580.68
xg for avg (last 5)1.641.18