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Kayserispor 2–2 Konyaspor

← Süper Lig 2023 · Sat, May 18, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: H. Meler

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Draw39%2.49
Kayserispor win32%3.00
Konyaspor win29%3.25

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kayserispor +053%1.83
Konyaspor +047%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under56%1.70
Over44%2.15

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

-5'🟨Ramazan Civelek · Kayserispor
15'🟨Aylton Boa Morte · Kayserispor
15'🟨Uğurcan Yazğılı · Konyaspor
17'🟥Duckens Nazon · Kayserispor
32'⚽Carlos Mané · Kayserispor
36'⚽Soner Dikmen · Konyaspor
74'⚽Steven​ N'Zonzi · Konyaspor
77'⚽ (pen)Carlos Mané · Kayserispor
84'🟨Miguel Cardoso · Kayserispor
90'🟨Soner Dikmen · Konyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
8Shots15
3On target7
1Corners9
5Fouls14
4Yellow cards2
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKayserisporKonyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.270.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.20
box share (last 5)0.530.68
cards avg (last 5)2.202.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueRHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu
coach days138.0047.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.17
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.60-0.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.004.80
corners for avg (last 5)3.404.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.491.52
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.06
dominance (last 5)0.410.43
elo1494.051568.30
elo momentum (last 5)7.6329.25
eye test v1-0.45-1.13
eye trend v10.05-0.04
first sub minute (last 10)61.0058.00
form points (last 5)5.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.600.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.841.06
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.100.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.40
keeper form v10.720.83
league points54.0050.00
league rank11.0016.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet4.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.8072.00
possession avg (last 5)48.0042.60
rest days6.006.00
scorer concentration0.230.18
season ppg1.231.16
shot diff avg (last 5)-6.80-3.20
shots for avg (last 5)12.406.20
skill v1-0.25-1.07
solidity v1-1.011.17
sot against avg (last 5)6.602.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.603.50
sot for avg (last 3)3.333.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.402.60
squad age28.8429.69
state index-0.420.45
sterile dominance v1-0.100.05
threat rate (last 10)0.260.23
threat rate (last 3)0.230.19
threat rate (last 5)0.260.17
venue ppg (last 5)0.402.00
xg against avg (last 5)1.600.90
xg for avg (last 5)0.940.68