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Besiktas 2–2 Hatayspor

← Süper Lig 2023 · Sat, May 18, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Aydın

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Besiktas win63%1.52
Draw21%4.59
Hatayspor win16%6.16

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Besiktas −153%1.85
Hatayspor −147%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over60%1.61
Under40%2.42

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

26'⚽Chandrel Massanga · Hatayspor
44'🟨Rui Pedro · Hatayspor
45'🟨Joelson Fernandes · Hatayspor
50'⚽Gedson Fernandes · Besiktas
55'⚽Fisayo Dele-Bashiru · Hatayspor
74'🟨Vincent Aboubakar · Besiktas
74'🟨Arthur Masuaku · Besiktas
76'🟨Ernest Muçi · Besiktas
90'🟨Tayyip Talha Sanuç · Besiktas
90'🟨Gedson Fernandes · Besiktas
90'🟨Salih Uçan · Besiktas
90'🟨Cemali Sertel · Hatayspor
90'⚽ (pen)Vincent Aboubakar · Besiktas

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
19Shots9
7On target3
7Corners3
6Fouls17
6Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBesiktasHatayspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.510.59
cards avg (last 5)2.403.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueTüpraş Stadyumu
coach days138.0017.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.06
corner diff avg (last 5)0.001.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.602.80
corners for avg (last 5)3.604.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.811.96
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.16
dominance (last 5)0.490.57
elo1611.861422.46
elo momentum (last 5)9.52-3.59
eye test v10.210.48
eye trend v1-0.090.69
first sub minute (last 10)53.5054.00
form points (last 5)8.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.880.94
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.25
keeper form v10.780.63
league points60.0045.00
league rank5.0019.00
matches since blank8.005.00
matches since clean sheet3.008.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.0079.40
possession avg (last 5)47.0048.00
rest days6.006.00
scorer concentration0.220.17
season ppg1.401.02
shot diff avg (last 5)0.804.00
shots for avg (last 5)14.4016.00
skill v1-0.110.14
solidity v10.21-0.48
sot against avg (last 5)4.404.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.803.50
sot for avg (last 3)4.675.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.805.00
squad age28.5126.50
state index0.29-0.45
sterile dominance v1-0.58-0.71
threat rate (last 10)0.290.26
threat rate (last 3)0.280.38
threat rate (last 5)0.320.34
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.40
xg against avg (last 5)1.161.58
xg for avg (last 5)1.101.46