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Rizespor 2–2 Ankaragücü

← Süper Lig 2023 · Sun, Apr 28, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Doman

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rizespor win47%2.08
Draw27%3.70
Ankaragücü win26%3.72

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ankaragücü −0.553%1.83
Rizespor −0.547%2.09

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over51%1.90
Under49%1.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

25'⚽Adolfo Gaich · Rizespor
30'🟨Ali Sowe · Ankaragücü
32'⚽Ibrahim Olawoyin · Rizespor
45'🟨Christian Bassogog · Ankaragücü
56'⚽Riad Bajić · Ankaragücü
64'🟨Mert Çetin · Ankaragücü
85'🟨Emirhan Topçu · Rizespor
85'🟨Efkan Bekiroğlu · Ankaragücü
90'🟨Tarık Çetin · Rizespor
90'🟨Muammer Sarıkaya · Rizespor
90'🟨Garry Rodrigues · Ankaragücü
90'⚽Garry Rodrigues · Ankaragücü

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
13Shots20
3On target8
2Corners3
12Fouls11
3Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRizesporAnkaragücü
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.20
box share (last 5)0.620.45
cards avg (last 5)1.800.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueÇaykur Didi Stadyumu
coach days332.00210.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.180.12
corner diff avg (last 5)1.000.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.804.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.804.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.713.16
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.12
dominance (last 5)0.510.52
elo1514.251523.06
elo momentum (last 5)22.8323.99
eye test v10.73-0.21
eye trend v1-0.100.25
first sub minute (last 10)54.9055.90
form points (last 5)9.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.000.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.481.03
h2 goals (last 10)1.100.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.25
keeper form v10.690.71
league points55.0046.00
league rank6.0017.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.0011.00
matches since win2.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.0081.40
possession avg (last 5)44.2055.20
rest days7.238.96
scorer concentration0.220.27
season ppg1.381.12
shot diff avg (last 5)0.800.20
shots for avg (last 5)13.0013.00
skill v10.170.26
solidity v1-0.240.57
sot against avg (last 5)5.403.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.303.70
sot for avg (last 3)5.334.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.404.00
squad age25.9927.97
state index0.300.08
sterile dominance v1-0.930.60
threat rate (last 10)0.320.23
threat rate (last 3)0.390.25
threat rate (last 5)0.340.23
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.20
xg against avg (last 5)1.361.18
xg for avg (last 5)1.720.96