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İstanbulspor 1–2 Karagumruk

← Süper Lig 2023 · Sat, Apr 20, 10:30 AM UTC · ref: B. Şeker

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Karagumruk win60%1.62
Draw21%4.75
İstanbulspor win19%5.29

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
İstanbulspor +151%1.93
Karagumruk +149%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over60%1.60
Under40%2.45

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

22'🟨Koray Günter · Karagumruk
47'🟨Modestas Vorobjovas · İstanbulspor
64'🟨Emre Mor · Karagumruk
85'⚽Racine Coly · İstanbulspor
86'⚽Güven Yalçın · Karagumruk
90'🟨Florian Loshaj · İstanbulspor
90'🟨Racine Coly · İstanbulspor
90'🟨Davide Biraschi · Karagumruk
90'⚽ (pen)Sofiane Feghouli · Karagumruk

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
13Shots24
5On target5
1Corners7
11Fouls15
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricİstanbulsporKaragumruk
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.44
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
box share (last 5)0.570.53
cards avg (last 5)2.604.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEsenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu
coach days110.0050.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.07
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.00-0.60
corners against avg (last 5)6.806.20
corners for avg (last 5)3.805.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.703.50
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.11
dominance (last 5)0.340.42
elo1372.591520.52
elo momentum (last 5)-8.64-34.01
eye test v1-0.72-0.18
eye trend v1-0.220.55
first sub minute (last 10)57.4053.80
form points (last 5)3.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.80-1.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.802.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.990.63
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.35
keeper form v10.690.71
league points20.0038.00
league rank24.0021.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.009.00
matches since win0.009.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.2080.20
possession avg (last 5)44.6048.00
rest days5.905.77
scorer concentration0.200.19
season ppg0.510.97
shot diff avg (last 5)-8.60-4.80
shots for avg (last 5)9.4011.60
skill v1-0.66-0.19
solidity v1-1.13-1.80
sot against avg (last 5)6.206.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.004.10
sot for avg (last 3)3.006.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.204.20
squad age27.3630.08
state index-0.83-1.00
sterile dominance v1-0.03-0.02
threat rate (last 10)0.220.26
threat rate (last 3)0.180.29
threat rate (last 5)0.200.25
venue ppg (last 5)0.000.20
xg against avg (last 5)1.762.22
xg for avg (last 5)0.960.88