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İstanbulspor 0–4 Rizespor

← Süper Lig 2023 · Tue, Apr 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Akarsu

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rizespor win56%1.70
Draw24%4.05
İstanbulspor win20%5.09

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rizespor +0.7551%1.90
İstanbulspor +0.7549%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over57%1.70
Under43%2.23

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'⚽Ibrahim Olawoyin · Rizespor
44'🟨Racine Coly · İstanbulspor
44'⚽Martin Minchev · Rizespor
45'🟨Ozcan Sahan · İstanbulspor
45'🟨Simon Deli · İstanbulspor
45'🟨Emirhan Topçu · Rizespor
54'🟨Husniddin Alikulov · Rizespor
64'⚽Martin Minchev · Rizespor
82'🟨Florian Loshaj · İstanbulspor
90'⚽Babajide David Akintola · Rizespor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
7Shots20
3On target11
2Corners6
10Fouls13
4Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricİstanbulsporRizespor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.43
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.45
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.05
box share (last 5)0.610.62
cards avg (last 5)3.000.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEsenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu
coach days92.00306.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.15
corner diff avg (last 5)-5.001.00
corners against avg (last 5)8.203.60
corners for avg (last 5)3.204.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.183.03
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.19
dominance (last 5)0.360.45
elo1361.961500.98
elo momentum (last 5)-21.579.59
eye test v1-0.300.44
eye trend v1-0.450.35
first sub minute (last 10)59.2055.90
form points (last 5)1.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.00-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.603.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.602.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.671.23
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.20
keeper form v10.680.71
league points17.0049.00
league rank24.006.00
matches since blank0.004.00
matches since clean sheet12.003.00
matches since win12.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.4075.60
possession avg (last 5)45.0047.80
rest days17.8516.15
scorer concentration0.180.26
season ppg0.461.36
shot diff avg (last 5)-7.20-2.00
shots for avg (last 5)10.2012.00
skill v1-0.68-0.24
solidity v1-0.62-1.54
sot against avg (last 5)6.006.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.204.80
sot for avg (last 3)2.676.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.405.40
squad age27.4126.53
state index-1.34-0.42
sterile dominance v1-0.19-0.42
threat rate (last 10)0.240.29
threat rate (last 3)0.180.36
threat rate (last 5)0.230.28
venue ppg (last 5)0.200.00
xg against avg (last 5)1.391.66
xg for avg (last 5)0.881.25