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Rizespor 1–3 Fenerbahce

← Süper Lig 2023 · Sat, Feb 17, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Kardeşler

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce win67%1.44
Draw19%5.07
Rizespor win14%7.06

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rizespor +1.2551%1.93
Fenerbahce +1.2549%1.97

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over62%1.56
Under38%2.56

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

13'🟨Muammer Sarıkaya · Rizespor
19'🟨Emirhan Topçu · Rizespor
27'⚽Martin Minchev · Rizespor
45'🟨Cengiz Ünder · Fenerbahce
48'⚽Serdar Dursun · Fenerbahce
59'🟨Babajide David Akintola · Rizespor
65'⚽Edin Dzeko · Fenerbahce
90'🟨Jonjo Shelvey · Rizespor
90'🟨Mert Hakan Yandaş · Fenerbahce
90'⚽İrfan Can Kahveci · Fenerbahce

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
8Shots13
4On target5
3Corners6
16Fouls18
4Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRizesporFenerbahce
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.36
box share (last 5)0.600.67
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days261.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueÇaykur Didi Stadyumu
626.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corner diff avg (last 5)2.406.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.001.60
corners for avg (last 5)6.408.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.132.58
elo1478.451824.26
elo momentum (last 5)-17.24-0.46
eye test v1-0.041.80
eye trend v1-0.23-0.04
first sub minute (last 10)62.0058.20
form points (last 5)4.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.000.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.400.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.401.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.552.17
h2h win rate (last 5)0.001.00
keeper form v10.790.76
league points36.0064.00
league rank6.002.00
matches since blank0.008.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win3.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.6082.00
possession avg (last 5)48.4061.20
rest days6.236.00
scorer concentration0.310.31
season ppg1.442.56
skill v1-0.201.41
solidity v10.101.41
sot against avg (last 5)4.202.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.507.60
sot for avg (last 3)4.008.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.207.80
squad age—28.54
state index-0.461.24
sterile dominance v1-0.45-0.17
threat rate (last 10)0.290.33
threat rate (last 3)0.260.36
threat rate (last 5)0.300.37
venue ppg (last 5)2.003.00
xg against avg (last 5)1.270.57
xg for avg (last 5)1.042.30