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Antalyaspor 2–2 İstanbulspor

← Süper Lig 2023 · Sat, Feb 17, 10:30 AM UTC · ref: M. Türkmen

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Antalyaspor win68%1.44
Draw20%4.96
İstanbulspor win12%7.82

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
İstanbulspor −1.2550%1.94
Antalyaspor −1.2550%1.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over56%1.70
Under44%2.26

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'⚽Adam Buksa · Antalyaspor
16'⚽Adam Buksa · Antalyaspor
44'🟨Simon Deli · İstanbulspor
54'🟨Racine Coly · İstanbulspor
75'⚽Emrehan Gedikli · İstanbulspor
90'🟨Bahadır Öztürk · Antalyaspor
90'🟨Veysel Sarı · Antalyaspor
90'⚽ (pen)Jackson · İstanbulspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
14Shots12
5On target8
6Corners6
11Fouls16
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAntalyasporİstanbulspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.200.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.220.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.240.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.560.53
cards avg (last 5)1.803.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueCorendon Airlines Park
coach days47.0047.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.00
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.050.13
corner diff avg (last 5)0.00-2.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.405.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.403.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.562.37
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.15
dominance (last 5)0.570.37
elo1541.791377.86
elo momentum (last 5)-10.62-26.06
eye test v10.07-0.39
eye trend v10.10-0.27
first sub minute (last 10)69.4063.00
form points (last 5)5.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-1.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.402.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.630.74
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.15
keeper form v10.760.65
league points38.0015.00
league rank9.0024.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet6.006.00
matches since win3.006.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.6070.80
possession avg (last 5)58.4042.40
rest days4.735.90
scorer concentration0.300.21
season ppg1.310.48
shot diff avg (last 5)4.00-5.40
shots for avg (last 5)15.208.20
skill v10.57-0.96
solidity v10.02-0.83
sot against avg (last 5)5.204.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.404.30
sot for avg (last 3)3.003.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.404.00
squad age28.7626.71
state index-0.19-1.31
sterile dominance v10.39-0.61
threat rate (last 10)0.270.25
threat rate (last 3)0.250.19
threat rate (last 5)0.270.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.60
xg against avg (last 5)1.061.73
xg for avg (last 5)1.300.98