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Gaziantep 1–1 Kayserispor

← Süper Lig 2023 · Sat, Feb 3, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Erdoğan

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gaziantep win45%2.13
Kayserispor win28%3.62
Draw27%3.54

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gaziantep −0.2553%1.84
Kayserispor −0.2547%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over50%1.93
Under50%1.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'⚽Mehmet Eray Özbek · Kayserispor
25'🟨Miguel Cardoso · Kayserispor
67'🟨Arif Kocaman · Kayserispor
68'🟨Alexandru Maxim · Gaziantep
68'🟨Bilal Bayazit · Kayserispor
68'⚽ (og)Gökhan Sazdağı · Gaziantep
83'🟨Salem M'Bakata · Gaziantep
85'🟨Kartal Kayra Yılmaz · Kayserispor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
12Shots15
3On target4
9Corners4
10Fouls12
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGaziantepKayserispor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.00
box share (last 5)0.690.78
cards avg (last 5)3.202.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueKalyon Stadyumu
coach days1008.0033.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d5.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.05
corner diff avg (last 5)-5.60-1.40
corners against avg (last 5)8.806.60
corners for avg (last 5)3.205.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.511.05
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.13
dominance (last 5)0.350.42
elo1400.261510.21
elo momentum (last 5)3.42-32.12
eye test v1-0.63-0.18
eye trend v1-0.04-0.23
first sub minute (last 10)61.7062.20
form points (last 5)2.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.970.94
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.20
keeper form v10.720.66
league points24.0036.00
league rank23.008.00
matches since blank4.001.00
matches since clean sheet5.009.00
matches since win7.009.00
pass acc avg (last 5)69.4077.40
possession avg (last 5)37.6055.00
rest days4.965.08
scorer concentration0.350.36
season ppg0.861.29
shot diff avg (last 5)-8.80-5.40
shots for avg (last 5)8.2011.40
skill v1-1.340.16
solidity v1-0.97-1.30
sot against avg (last 5)6.206.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.604.20
sot for avg (last 3)3.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.404.00
squad age29.3828.80
state index-0.91-1.12
sterile dominance v1-0.850.60
threat rate (last 10)0.260.22
threat rate (last 3)0.250.19
threat rate (last 5)0.240.21
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.00
xg against avg (last 5)1.671.82
xg for avg (last 5)0.851.20