← Süper Lig 2023 · Fri, Feb 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ö. Turtay
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Karagumruk win | 36% | 2.72 |
| Hatayspor win | 35% | 2.93 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.25 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Karagumruk +0 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Hatayspor +0 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 1.64 |
| Over | 41% | 2.36 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 41' | ⚽ | Chandrel Massanga · Hatayspor |
| 48' | 🟨 | Federico Ceccherini · Karagumruk |
| 51' | ⚽ (pen) | Carlos Strandberg · Hatayspor |
| 83' | 🟨 | Can Keleş · Karagumruk |
| 86' | ⚽ | Kevin Lasagna · Karagumruk |
| 90' | ⚽ | Chandrel Massanga · Hatayspor |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 18 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 7 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hatayspor | Karagumruk |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Mersin Stadyumu |
| coach days | 519.00 | 63.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1429.33 | 1570.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.94 | -12.16 |
| eye test v1 | -0.63 | 0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | 0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.20 | 55.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 1.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | — |
| league points | 33.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 5.92 | 5.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.53 | -0.03 |
| solidity v1 | 0.70 | -0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 25.71 | 30.10 |
| state index | -0.50 | -0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.69 | -0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.22 | 1.50 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.93 |