← Süper Lig 2023 · Sun, Jan 21, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Şimşek
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Fenerbahce win | 79% | 1.21 |
| Draw | 13% | 7.52 |
| Samsunspor win | 8% | 13.48 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Samsunspor −2 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Fenerbahce −2 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 67% | 1.42 |
| Under | 33% | 2.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 6 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 1 |
| 7 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi |