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Sivasspor 2–2 Gaziantep

← Süper Lig 2023 · Sun, Jan 21, 10:30 AM UTC · ref: K. Sağlam

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sivasspor win47%2.10
Draw28%3.50
Gaziantep win26%3.88

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gaziantep −0.553%1.83
Sivasspor −0.547%2.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under53%1.83
Over47%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'🟨Salem M'Bakata · Gaziantep
8'⚽ (pen)Rey Manaj · Sivasspor
15'⚽ (pen)Rey Manaj · Sivasspor
18'🟨Roman Kvet · Sivasspor
29'⚽Denis Drăguş · Gaziantep
37'🟨Rey Manaj · Sivasspor
41'⚽Papy Djilobodji · Gaziantep
44'🟨Marko Jevtović · Gaziantep
48'🟨Denis Drăguş · Gaziantep
64'🟨Burak Kapacak · Sivasspor
69'🟨Alexandru Maxim · Gaziantep
81'🟨Alexandru Maxim · Gaziantep
81'🟥Alexandru Maxim · Gaziantep

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score2
14Shots15
5On target7
3Corners5
9Fouls15
3Yellow cards5
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSivassporGaziantep
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.38
box share (last 5)0.610.63
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days51.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu
995.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.40-1.80
corners against avg (last 5)6.005.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.603.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.511.75
elo1522.021418.57
elo momentum (last 5)5.9631.19
eye test v1-0.07-0.63
eye trend v1-0.42-0.30
first sub minute (last 10)55.5060.00
form points (last 5)7.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.031.18
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
keeper form v10.650.76
league points25.0021.00
league rank12.0016.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.001.00
matches since win2.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.2072.80
possession avg (last 5)41.4035.20
rest days6.906.77
scorer concentration0.330.35
season ppg1.251.05
skill v1-0.62-1.31
solidity v1-0.65-0.30
sot against avg (last 5)5.405.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.003.70
sot for avg (last 3)3.672.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.203.20
state index-0.11-0.13
sterile dominance v1-0.69-1.06
threat rate (last 10)0.300.26
threat rate (last 3)0.280.21
threat rate (last 5)0.270.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.40
xg against avg (last 5)1.661.49
xg for avg (last 5)1.120.83