← Süper Lig 2023 · Sun, Jan 7, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: V. Bayarslan
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Fenerbahce win | 82% | 1.17 |
| Draw | 12% | 8.48 |
| İstanbulspor win | 6% | 18.74 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Fenerbahce +2 | 53% | 1.83 |
| İstanbulspor +2 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 68% | 1.41 |
| Under | 32% | 3.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 4 |
| 15 | Shots | 23 |
| 8 | On target | 15 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı |