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Kayserispor 1–3 Sivasspor

← Süper Lig 2023 · Sun, Jan 7, 10:30 AM UTC · ref: A. Akarsu

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kayserispor win44%2.18
Sivasspor win29%3.57
Draw27%3.60

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kayserispor −0.2552%1.88
Sivasspor −0.2548%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over50%1.94
Under50%1.94

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'🟨Aaron Appindangoyé · Sivasspor
23'⚽ (og)Arif Kocaman · Sivasspor
28'🟨Gökhan Sazdağı · Kayserispor
42'⚽Stéphane Bahoken · Kayserispor
63'🟨Stéphane Bahoken · Kayserispor
73'🟨Roman Kvet · Sivasspor
90'🟨Joseph Attamah · Kayserispor
90'🟨Kartal Kayra Yılmaz · Kayserispor
90'🟨Rey Manaj · Sivasspor
90'⚽ (pen)Rey Manaj · Sivasspor
90'⚽

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
15Shots10
3On target5
7Corners7
8Fouls11
4Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKayserisporSivasspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.42
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.43
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.44
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.560.51
cards avg (last 5)2.201.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueRHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu
Rey Manaj
· Sivasspor
coach days6.0037.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.12
corner diff avg (last 5)1.40-1.80
corners against avg (last 5)3.604.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.772.50
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.19
dominance (last 5)0.520.52
elo1576.841500.39
elo momentum (last 5)3.50-3.29
eye test v10.050.19
eye trend v10.02-0.58
first sub minute (last 10)57.1056.70
form points (last 5)7.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.402.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.370.79
h2 goals (last 10)1.100.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.30
keeper form v10.720.62
league points35.0022.00
league rank5.0019.00
matches since blank0.006.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.8078.20
possession avg (last 5)52.6042.20
rest days14.0015.00
scorer concentration0.440.30
season ppg1.671.10
shot diff avg (last 5)0.800.80
shots for avg (last 5)12.6011.80
skill v10.26-0.55
solidity v10.12-0.09
sot against avg (last 5)3.603.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.405.90
sot for avg (last 3)4.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.405.20
squad age30.1929.46
state index0.16-0.38
sterile dominance v10.40-0.61
threat rate (last 10)0.210.33
threat rate (last 3)0.230.26
threat rate (last 5)0.230.28
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.60
xg against avg (last 5)1.401.46
xg for avg (last 5)1.300.92