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Gaziantep 2–2 Pendikspor

← Süper Lig 2023 · Fri, Jan 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ç. Altay

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gaziantep win49%1.95
Pendikspor win26%4.10
Draw26%3.67

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pendikspor −0.550%1.95
Gaziantep −0.550%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over52%1.89
Under48%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

-5'🟨Endri Çekiçi · Pendikspor
12'⚽Denis Drăguş · Gaziantep
32'🟨Ogün Özçiçek · Gaziantep
45'🟨Nuno Sequeira · Pendikspor
49'⚽Ogün Özçiçek · Gaziantep
57'🟨Arnaud Lusamba · Pendikspor
76'🟨Papy Djilobodji · Gaziantep
77'⚽ (pen)Erdem Özgenç · Pendikspor
80'⚽Erencan Yardımcı · Pendikspor
82'🟨Gökcan Kaya · Pendikspor
82'🟨Alpaslan Öztürk · Pendikspor
83'🟨Fredrik Midtsjø · Pendikspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
9Shots8
2On target4
1Corners5
7Fouls16
2Yellow cards6
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGaziantepPendikspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.27
blown lead rate (last 20)0.05—
box share (last 5)0.640.59
cards avg (last 5)1.401.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueKalyon Stadyumu
coach days979.0096.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.00—
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.160.05
corner diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.004.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.204.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.782.08
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.29
dominance (last 5)0.410.52
elo1394.941440.55
elo momentum (last 5)29.19-31.78
eye test v1-0.15-0.59
eye trend v10.090.08
first sub minute (last 10)58.3061.40
form points (last 5)5.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-2.00
goals against avg (last 5)2.202.40
goals for avg (last 5)2.000.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.061.20
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.25—
keeper form v10.72—
league points20.0015.00
league rank20.0023.00
matches since blank6.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.007.00
matches since win0.007.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.6077.20
possession avg (last 5)43.0043.20
rest days13.0410.88
scorer concentration0.330.33
season ppg0.950.71
shot diff avg (last 5)-5.200.60
shots for avg (last 5)10.8011.60
skill v1-0.42-0.46
solidity v1-1.14-0.98
sot against avg (last 5)6.604.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.803.80
sot for avg (last 3)4.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.803.00
squad age30.0530.21
state index-0.28-1.17
sterile dominance v1-0.53-0.38
threat rate (last 10)0.290.25
threat rate (last 3)0.290.23
threat rate (last 5)0.260.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.60
xg against avg (last 5)1.541.97
xg for avg (last 5)1.311.09