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Gaziantep 1–3 Trabzonspor

← Süper Lig 2023 · Sun, Dec 10, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Kardeşler

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Trabzonspor win47%2.04
Draw27%3.51
Gaziantep win26%3.92

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gaziantep +0.552%1.87
Trabzonspor +0.548%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under50%1.96
Over50%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

15'🟨Ogün Özçiçek · Gaziantep
48'⚽Mahmoud Trézéguet · Trabzonspor
59'⚽Anastasios Bakasetas · Trabzonspor
76'⚽Mahmoud Trézéguet · Trabzonspor
79'🟨Batista Mendy · Trabzonspor
80'⚽Denis Drăguş · Gaziantep
87'🟨Enis Destan · Trabzonspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
8Shots20
4On target11
2Corners3
6Fouls11
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGaziantepTrabzonspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.26
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.27
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.760.67
cards avg (last 5)2.602.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueKalyon Stadyumu
coach days953.0070.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.18
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.80-1.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.405.40
corners for avg (last 5)3.603.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.311.77
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.11
dominance (last 5)0.420.51
elo1359.731639.71
elo momentum (last 5)22.797.52
eye test v10.30-0.52
eye trend v1-0.070.01
first sub minute (last 10)56.9057.90
form points (last 5)6.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.141.25
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.100.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.50
keeper form v10.640.77
league points15.0026.00
league rank20.006.00
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.004.00
matches since win3.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.8080.80
possession avg (last 5)42.0053.40
rest days7.237.13
scorer concentration0.330.32
season ppg0.881.53
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.400.40
shots for avg (last 5)10.8011.80
skill v1-0.330.13
solidity v10.07-0.15
sot against avg (last 5)4.404.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.803.20
sot for avg (last 3)4.003.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.603.00
squad age31.1228.02
state index-0.330.28
sterile dominance v1-0.820.45
threat rate (last 10)0.290.25
threat rate (last 3)0.290.24
threat rate (last 5)0.280.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.00
xg against avg (last 5)1.111.32
xg for avg (last 5)1.680.95