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Fenerbahce 2–1 Karagumruk

← Süper Lig 2023 · Sun, Nov 26, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Kardeşler

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce win76%1.25
Draw15%6.70
Karagumruk win9%11.72

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Karagumruk −1.7550%1.94
Fenerbahce −1.7550%1.94

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over64%1.50
Under36%2.65

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

34'🟨Federico Ceccherini · Karagumruk
39'⚽Can Keleş · Karagumruk
45'🟨Miguel Crespo · Fenerbahce
47'🟨Matías Dituro · Karagumruk
48'⚽ (pen)Dušan Tadić · Fenerbahce
56'🟨Levent Mercan · Karagumruk
58'⚽Dušan Tadić · Fenerbahce
68'🟨Sebastian Szymański · Fenerbahce
81'🟨Ibrahim Drešević · Karagumruk
87'🟨Dušan Tadić · Fenerbahce
90'🟨

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
9Shots9
3On target2
1Corners2
20Fouls17
5Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFenerbahceKaragumruk
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.420.42
box share (last 5)0.600.65
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days543.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueÜlker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi
Samet Akaydın
· Fenerbahce
90'🟨Cengiz Ünder · Fenerbahce
209.00
congestion 21d2.001.00
corner diff avg (last 5)4.802.80
corners against avg (last 5)2.603.20
corners for avg (last 5)7.406.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.601.78
elo1811.871591.19
elo momentum (last 5)-34.5818.76
eye test v10.94-0.02
eye trend v1-0.600.19
first sub minute (last 10)62.4056.20
form points (last 5)7.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.60
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.830.99
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
keeper form v10.620.91
league points31.0014.00
league rank2.0014.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)84.2078.00
possession avg (last 5)59.6048.00
rest days14.0015.13
scorer concentration0.380.25
season ppg2.581.17
skill v11.63-0.21
solidity v11.270.78
sot against avg (last 5)3.003.00
sot for avg (last 10)6.803.90
sot for avg (last 3)4.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)6.404.60
squad age29.49—
state index0.800.51
sterile dominance v10.700.10
threat rate (last 10)0.280.22
threat rate (last 3)0.240.22
threat rate (last 5)0.260.23
venue ppg (last 5)2.401.00
xg against avg (last 5)0.531.17
xg for avg (last 5)1.601.11