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Antalyaspor 3–2 Besiktas

← Süper Lig 2023 · Sun, Nov 5, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: Y. Uğurlu

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Antalyaspor win38%2.55
Besiktas win34%2.85
Draw28%3.52

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Antalyaspor +053%1.85
Besiktas +047%2.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over51%1.91
Under49%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

35'🟨Adam Buksa · Antalyaspor
37'🟨Salih Uçan · Besiktas
45'⚽Cenk Tosun · Besiktas
46'⚽Dario Šarić · Antalyaspor
50'⚽Sagiv Jehezkel · Antalyaspor
57'⚽Sagiv Jehezkel · Antalyaspor
67'🟨Gedson Fernandes · Besiktas
79'⚽Jackson Muleka · Besiktas
90'🟨Ante Rebić · Besiktas

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
5Shots17
3On target5
3Corners6
13Fouls13
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAntalyasporBesiktas
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.230.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.620.59
cards avg (last 5)1.202.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueCorendon Airlines Park
coach days765.004.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.10
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.25
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.20-0.60
corners against avg (last 5)6.004.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.803.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.562.15
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.07
dominance (last 5)0.560.50
elo1522.171745.98
elo momentum (last 5)-3.42-26.24
eye test v1-0.70-0.09
eye trend v1-0.300.02
first sub minute (last 10)56.5044.80
form points (last 5)6.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.401.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.820.48
h2 goals (last 10)0.401.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.45
keeper form v10.65—
league points15.0019.00
league rank13.007.00
matches since blank2.0011.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.0083.80
possession avg (last 5)48.0056.00
rest days7.005.96
scorer concentration0.400.31
season ppg1.251.58
shot diff avg (last 5)2.60-1.20
shots for avg (last 5)11.0010.80
skill v1-0.270.52
solidity v11.00-0.80
sot against avg (last 5)2.805.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.704.10
sot for avg (last 3)2.334.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.804.40
squad age29.5927.70
state index0.020.22
sterile dominance v10.101.06
threat rate (last 10)0.260.19
threat rate (last 3)0.220.18
threat rate (last 5)0.230.19
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.60
xg against avg (last 5)0.901.67
xg for avg (last 5)0.881.09