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Konyaspor 1–1 Karagumruk

← Süper Lig 2023 · Sun, Nov 5, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Güzenge

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Konyaspor win47%2.06
Draw28%3.42
Karagumruk win25%3.98

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Karagumruk −0.553%1.85
Konyaspor −0.547%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under54%1.79
Over46%2.11

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

42'🟨Francisco Calvo · Konyaspor
42'🟨Güven Yalçın · Karagumruk
43'🟨Sofiane Feghouli · Karagumruk
45'🟨Adil Demirbağ · Konyaspor
46'⚽Güven Yalçın · Karagumruk
78'🟨Ryan Mendes · Karagumruk
90'🟨Levent Mercan · Karagumruk
90'🟨Davide Biraschi · Karagumruk
90'⚽ (pen)Sokol Cikalleshi · Konyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
10Shots9
3On target2
2Corners8
13Fouls19
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKonyasporKaragumruk
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.46
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.41
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.20
box share (last 5)0.560.65
cards avg (last 5)1.001.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueKonya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu
coach days35.00188.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.11
corner diff avg (last 5)0.003.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.802.80
corners for avg (last 5)3.806.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.471.78
defensive leak (last 5)0.230.24
dominance (last 5)0.470.55
elo1553.851613.63
elo momentum (last 5)-66.287.81
eye test v1-0.520.08
eye trend v10.250.53
first sub minute (last 10)60.2055.50
form points (last 5)0.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-2.200.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.601.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.401.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.630.88
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.45
keeper form v10.490.94
league points12.0016.00
league rank18.0012.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet7.000.00
matches since win7.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.6081.00
possession avg (last 5)48.6054.60
rest days7.887.00
scorer concentration0.250.13
season ppg1.001.23
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.001.60
shots for avg (last 5)9.809.80
skill v1-0.280.32
solidity v1-0.240.71
sot against avg (last 5)2.603.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.803.30
sot for avg (last 3)4.674.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.604.60
squad age28.9427.70
state index-1.190.23
sterile dominance v10.420.67
threat rate (last 10)0.230.21
threat rate (last 3)0.250.21
threat rate (last 5)0.210.21
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.40
xg against avg (last 5)1.641.12
xg for avg (last 5)0.581.14