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Besiktas 2–0 Gaziantep

← Süper Lig 2023 · Mon, Oct 30, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Kalkavan

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Besiktas win62%1.56
Draw22%4.40
Gaziantep win16%6.25

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gaziantep −150%1.95
Besiktas −150%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over57%1.68
Under43%2.27

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

35'🟨Denis Drăguş · Gaziantep
48'🟨Nicolas N'Koulou · Gaziantep
55'🟨Furkan Soyalp · Gaziantep
63'⚽Salih Uçan · Besiktas
75'⚽Cenk Tosun · Besiktas
80'🟨Amir Hadžiahmetović · Besiktas
85'🟨Max Gradel · Gaziantep
86'🟨Amir Hadžiahmetović · Besiktas
86'🟥Amir Hadžiahmetović · Besiktas
90'🟨Furkan Soyalp · Gaziantep
90'🟥Furkan Soyalp · Gaziantep

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
13Shots12
6On target6
7Corners3
15Fouls16
2Yellow cards5
1Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBesiktasGaziantep
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.430.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.31
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.630.61
cards avg (last 5)1.601.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueTüpraş Stadyumu
coach days29.00912.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.00
congestion 21d3.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.230.15
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.400.60
corners against avg (last 5)3.805.40
corners for avg (last 5)2.406.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.272.22
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.10
dominance (last 5)0.560.53
elo1744.051338.87
elo momentum (last 5)-46.2441.33
eye test v1-0.48-0.34
eye trend v10.14-0.07
first sub minute (last 10)49.0059.00
form points (last 5)3.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.00
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.520.84
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.500.15
keeper form v10.660.67
league points16.009.00
league rank12.0019.00
matches since blank10.001.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)84.6076.60
possession avg (last 5)55.4040.40
rest days3.929.17
scorer concentration0.360.29
season ppg1.450.82
shot diff avg (last 5)2.201.20
shots for avg (last 5)12.8011.00
skill v10.42-0.54
solidity v1-0.630.86
sot against avg (last 5)5.202.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.303.10
sot for avg (last 3)4.002.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.403.00
squad age29.6530.79
state index0.21-0.13
sterile dominance v11.25-0.91
threat rate (last 10)0.190.27
threat rate (last 3)0.200.24
threat rate (last 5)0.160.30
venue ppg (last 5)2.400.60
xg against avg (last 5)1.491.19
xg for avg (last 5)0.891.21