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Pendikspor 0–5 Fenerbahce

← Süper Lig 2023 · Sun, Oct 29, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Bitigen

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce win74%1.30
Draw16%6.22
Pendikspor win10%10.56

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pendikspor +1.7552%1.85
Fenerbahce +1.7548%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over65%1.47
Under35%2.75

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

23'🟨İbrahim Akdağ · Pendikspor
23'🟨Bright Osayi-Samuel · Fenerbahce
30'⚽ (og)Erdem Canpolat · Fenerbahce
42'⚽İrfan Can Kahveci · Fenerbahce
65'⚽Edin Dzeko · Fenerbahce
73'🟨İsmail Yüksek · Fenerbahce
77'⚽Edin Dzeko · Fenerbahce
87'⚽Edin Dzeko · Fenerbahce

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
2Shots19
0On target10
0Corners7
7Fouls11
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricPendiksporFenerbahce
accuracy ratio (last 10)—0.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)—0.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)—0.38
blown lead rate (last 20)—0.15
box share (last 5)—0.70
cards avg (last 5)2.400.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSiltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu
coach days28.00515.00
comeback rate (last 20)—0.15
congestion 21d1.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.17
corner diff avg (last 5)0.204.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.602.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.806.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.633.93
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.05
dominance (last 5)0.440.77
elo1473.551868.75
elo momentum (last 5)-4.5521.10
eye test v10.121.71
eye trend v10.03-0.24
first sub minute (last 10)51.0062.40
form points (last 5)4.0015.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.801.80
goals against avg (last 5)2.000.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.202.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.671.25
h2 goals (last 10)—1.10
ht lead rate (last 20)—0.60
keeper form v10.63—
league points8.0033.00
league rank20.001.00
matches since blank4.0020.00
matches since clean sheet11.002.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)85.4085.40
possession avg (last 5)55.0063.80
rest days8.132.97
scorer concentration0.290.32
season ppg0.733.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.0012.60
shots for avg (last 5)11.0018.00
skill v10.852.08
solidity v1-1.161.25
sot against avg (last 5)5.803.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.786.60
sot for avg (last 3)4.006.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.207.00
squad age29.5827.75
state index-0.311.78
sterile dominance v10.910.73
threat rate (last 10)0.220.29
threat rate (last 3)0.190.29
threat rate (last 5)0.210.29
venue ppg (last 5)—3.00
xg against avg (last 5)1.830.52
xg for avg (last 5)1.502.77