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Kayserispor 3–1 Rizespor

← Süper Lig 2023 · Sat, Oct 21, 10:30 AM UTC · ref: B. Şeker

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kayserispor win44%2.18
Rizespor win29%3.50
Draw27%3.53

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kayserispor −0.2552%1.88
Rizespor −0.2548%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over51%1.93
Under49%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

31'⚽Mame Thiam · Kayserispor
40'🟨Aylton Boa Morte · Kayserispor
56'🟨Dal Varešanović · Rizespor
57'🟨Lionel Carole · Kayserispor
66'⚽ (pen)Mame Thiam · Kayserispor
68'🟨Kartal Kayra Yılmaz · Kayserispor
70'⚽Altin Zeqiri · Rizespor
87'🟨Martin Minchev · Rizespor
89'⚽ (pen)Mame Thiam · Kayserispor
90'🟨Julian Jeanvier · Kayserispor
90'🟨

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
20Shots12
7On target3
5Corners2
13Fouls12
5Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKayserisporRizespor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.230.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.00
box share (last 5)0.730.55
cards avg (last 5)0.403.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueRHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu
Mame Thiam
· Kayserispor
coach days50.00142.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.09
corner diff avg (last 5)0.60-2.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.005.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.603.20
corners volatility (last 10)3.031.64
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.09
dominance (last 5)0.340.43
elo1521.661469.58
elo momentum (last 5)-14.4735.52
eye test v1-0.98-0.61
eye trend v1-0.24-0.09
first sub minute (last 10)58.3058.00
form points (last 5)5.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.820.94
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.20
keeper form v10.800.73
league points12.0014.00
league rank14.009.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win4.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.0077.80
possession avg (last 5)48.2045.40
rest days13.9013.00
scorer concentration0.670.38
season ppg1.201.56
shot diff avg (last 5)-7.80-4.20
shots for avg (last 5)8.0010.20
skill v1-0.17-0.32
solidity v1-0.33-0.35
sot against avg (last 5)6.405.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.103.60
sot for avg (last 3)1.673.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.203.00
state index-0.400.01
sterile dominance v10.53-0.04
threat rate (last 10)0.200.24
threat rate (last 3)0.190.22
threat rate (last 5)0.180.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.20
xg against avg (last 5)1.201.41
xg for avg (last 5)0.961.13