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Pendikspor 2–3 Sivasspor

← Süper Lig 2023 · Sat, Oct 7, 10:30 AM UTC · ref: T. Doman

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pendikspor win38%2.63
Sivasspor win34%2.98
Draw29%3.40

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pendikspor +053%1.86
Sivasspor +047%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.76
Over45%2.14

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'⚽Modou Barrow · Sivasspor
35'🟨Emrah Başsan · Sivasspor
47'🟨Charis Charisis · Sivasspor
55'🟨Josip Vuković · Pendikspor
57'⚽Rey Manaj · Sivasspor
68'⚽Erencan Yardımcı · Pendikspor
74'⚽Gökcan Kaya · Pendikspor
76'🟨Erdem Canpolat · Pendikspor
76'⚽Aaron Appindangoyé · Sivasspor
90'🟨Nuno Sequeira · Pendikspor
90'🟨Fredrik Midtsjø · Pendikspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
15Shots15
6On target7
9Corners4
14Fouls13
5Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricPendiksporSivasspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.44
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.36
blown lead rate (last 20)—0.10
box share (last 5)0.650.62
cards avg (last 5)1.203.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSiltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu
coach days6.0098.00
comeback rate (last 20)—0.00
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.06
corner diff avg (last 5)0.60-1.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.805.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.404.00
corners volatility (last 10)—1.29
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.10
dominance (last 5)0.520.48
elo1469.341502.41
elo momentum (last 5)-16.78-29.58
eye test v10.04-0.26
eye trend v10.190.67
first sub minute (last 10)52.4360.40
form points (last 5)2.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.40-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.600.60
goals volatility (last 10)—0.88
h2 goals (last 10)—0.10
ht lead rate (last 20)—0.35
keeper form v10.610.68
league points5.007.00
league rank20.0018.00
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet9.000.00
matches since win9.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)84.2081.40
possession avg (last 5)55.8045.80
rest days6.907.00
scorer concentration—0.43
season ppg0.561.00
shot diff avg (last 5)0.80-1.20
shots for avg (last 5)11.6010.40
skill v10.65-0.24
solidity v1-0.480.34
sot against avg (last 5)4.404.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.713.50
sot for avg (last 3)4.336.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.204.20
squad age28.9329.55
state index-0.92-0.64
sterile dominance v10.820.06
threat rate (last 10)0.220.24
threat rate (last 3)0.200.29
threat rate (last 5)0.220.23
venue ppg (last 5)—0.80
xg against avg (last 5)1.560.98
xg for avg (last 5)1.260.85