← Süper Lig 2023 · Fri, Oct 6, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Tonusluoğlu
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Alanyaspor win | 40% | 2.42 |
| Karagumruk win | 31% | 3.13 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.39 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Karagumruk −0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Alanyaspor −0.25 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.89 |
| Over | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Carlos Eduardo · Alanyaspor |
| 39' | 🟨 | Otabek Shukurov · Karagumruk |
| 62' | 🟨 | Furkan Bayır · Alanyaspor |
| 72' | 🟨 | Yusuf Özdemir · Alanyaspor |
| 83' | ⚽ | Oğuz Aydın · Alanyaspor |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ertuğrul Taşkıran · Alanyaspor |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nicolas Janvier · Alanyaspor |
| 90' | ⚽ | Güven Yalçın · Karagumruk |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 16 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Alanyaspor | Karagumruk |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu |
| coach days | 188.00 | 158.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 1.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1495.31 | 1592.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.17 | -50.60 |
| eye test v1 | -0.42 | -0.52 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.43 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.80 | 55.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.76 |
| league points | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 54.80 |
| rest days | 5.04 | 5.27 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.09 | 0.21 |
| solidity v1 | -0.52 | -0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.99 | -0.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.49 | 0.75 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.36 | 1.39 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.92 | 0.87 |