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Antalyaspor 1–1 Kayserispor

← Süper Lig 2023 · Sat, Sep 2, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: Y. Kol

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Antalyaspor win51%1.83
Draw25%3.85
Kayserispor win24%4.47

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Antalyaspor −0.553%1.82
Kayserispor −0.547%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over53%1.85
Under47%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

19'🟨Olivier Kemen · Kayserispor
31'🟨Güray Vural · Antalyaspor
34'⚽Mame Thiam · Kayserispor
44'⚽Sander van de Streek · Antalyaspor
51'🟨Lionel Carole · Kayserispor
88'🟨Baran Ali Gezek · Kayserispor
89'🟨Britt Assombalonga · Antalyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
20Shots7
7On target3
9Corners3
14Fouls11
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAntalyasporKayserispor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.38
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.570.73
cards avg (last 5)1.400.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueCorendon Airlines Park
coach days701.001.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.040.08
corner diff avg (last 5)1.20-2.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.006.00
corners for avg (last 5)6.203.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.913.18
defensive leak (last 5)0.180.12
dominance (last 5)0.570.53
elo1506.521535.23
elo momentum (last 5)-9.7721.96
eye test v1-0.29-0.25
eye trend v1-0.430.27
first sub minute (last 10)53.5060.60
form points (last 5)5.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.951.10
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.20
keeper form v10.660.67
league points2.006.00
league rank19.006.00
matches since blank2.002.00
matches since clean sheet4.002.00
matches since win4.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)84.0081.00
possession avg (last 5)54.0051.00
rest days7.006.10
season ppg0.671.50
shot diff avg (last 5)2.600.00
shots for avg (last 5)11.8010.00
skill v10.29-0.05
solidity v10.521.13
sot against avg (last 5)4.002.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.503.40
sot for avg (last 3)3.333.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.604.00
state index-0.220.09
sterile dominance v10.450.40
threat rate (last 10)0.290.21
threat rate (last 3)0.240.24
threat rate (last 5)0.250.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.60
xg against avg (last 5)1.041.06
xg for avg (last 5)0.870.85