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Rizespor 0–0 Alanyaspor

← Süper Lig 2023 · Sat, Aug 19, 04:15 PM UTC · ref: Y. Arslan

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rizespor win46%2.08
Alanyaspor win28%3.54
Draw26%3.78

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rizespor −0.2554%1.80
Alanyaspor −0.2546%2.11

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over57%1.69
Under43%2.26

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

-5'🟨Eray Korkmaz · Rizespor
40'🟨Yusuf Özdemir · Alanyaspor
45'🟨Richard Cândido · Alanyaspor
64'🟨Loide Augusto · Alanyaspor
67'🟥Oğuz Aydın · Alanyaspor
69'🟨Ibrahim Olawoyin · Rizespor
87'🟨Seyfettin Anıl Yaşar · Rizespor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
10Shots8
3On target2
3Corners3
12Fouls13
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRizesporAlanyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.460.47
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.15
box share (last 5)0.680.52
cards avg (last 5)2.001.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueÇaykur Didi Stadyumu
coach days79.00140.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.200.20
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.200.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.203.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.004.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.891.25
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.12
dominance (last 5)0.440.39
elo1416.651523.63
elo momentum (last 5)-9.06-1.91
eye test v10.530.27
eye trend v1-0.260.09
first sub minute (last 10)50.0054.30
form points (last 5)3.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.802.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals volatility (last 10)2.061.07
h2 goals (last 10)1.200.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.40
keeper form v10.760.59
matches since blank2.006.00
matches since clean sheet18.000.00
matches since win4.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)84.6080.80
possession avg (last 5)49.6043.00
rest days5.904.93
season ppg0.003.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.60-6.40
shots for avg (last 5)11.6010.00
skill v10.68-0.08
sot against avg (last 5)4.405.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.403.70
sot for avg (last 3)3.674.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.204.20
squad age24.9727.09
state index-0.60-0.25
sterile dominance v10.45-0.28
threat rate (last 10)0.240.23
threat rate (last 3)0.220.25
threat rate (last 5)0.230.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.20