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Gent 3–2 Westerlo

← Jupiler Pro League 2023 · Sat, Apr 27, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: B. Staessens

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gent win74%1.29
Draw15%6.50
Westerlo win11%9.18

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gent −1.555%1.74
Westerlo −1.545%2.16

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over74%1.29
Under26%3.70

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

1'⚽Lucas Stassin · Westerlo
19'⚽Omri Gandelman · Gent
21'⚽Matías Fernández-Pardo · Gent
34'⚽Nicolas Madsen · Westerlo
54'🟨Lucas Stassin · Westerlo
54'🟨Haspolat Dogucan · Westerlo
64'⚽Julien De Sart · Gent
75'🟨Stefan Mitrović · Gent
80'🟨Ravil Tagir · Westerlo
84'🟨Jordan Torunarigha · Gent

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score2
15Shots23
6On target7
3Corners10
9Fouls12
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGentWesterlo
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.450.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.48
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.640.57
cards avg (last 5)1.203.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venuePlanet Group Arena
coach days1243.0057.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d5.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.170.07
corner diff avg (last 5)3.80-1.20
corners against avg (last 5)2.207.20
corners for avg (last 5)6.006.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.052.57
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.13
dominance (last 5)0.630.39
elo1690.561491.31
elo momentum (last 5)8.85-18.04
eye test v11.270.43
eye trend v1-0.450.12
first sub minute (last 10)56.0054.50
form points (last 5)9.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.00-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.002.20
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.510.99
h2 goals (last 10)1.400.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.900.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.500.25
keeper form v10.810.64
league points70.0040.00
league rank4.0012.00
matches since blank12.004.00
matches since clean sheet0.0018.00
matches since win0.0010.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.4076.00
possession avg (last 5)54.8040.20
rest days4.014.01
scorer concentration0.230.18
season ppg1.670.95
shot diff avg (last 5)6.40-6.20
shots for avg (last 5)16.4012.80
skill v11.21-0.53
solidity v10.53-1.87
sot against avg (last 5)3.806.60
sot for avg (last 10)6.404.20
sot for avg (last 3)5.335.33
sot for avg (last 5)6.204.80
squad age24.7723.68
state index0.82-1.08
sterile dominance v1-0.01-1.07
threat rate (last 10)0.280.31
threat rate (last 3)0.310.36
threat rate (last 5)0.300.31
venue ppg (last 5)2.200.20
xg against avg (last 5)1.062.23
xg for avg (last 5)2.461.29