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Anderlecht 3–0 Club Brugge

← Jupiler Pro League 2023 · Wed, Apr 24, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: B. Van Driessche

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Anderlecht win50%1.95
Draw25%3.86
Club Brugge win25%4.04

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Anderlecht −0.551%1.93
Club Brugge −0.549%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over57%1.68
Under43%2.26

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

31'⚽Theo Leoni · Anderlecht
33'⚽Anders Dreyer · Anderlecht
37'🟨Warleson · Club Brugge
44'🟨Leonardo Lopes · Club Brugge
53'🟨Félix Lemaréchal · Club Brugge
56'⚽Theo Leoni · Anderlecht
90'🟨Luis Vázquez · Anderlecht
90'🟨Malamine Efekele · Club Brugge

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
12Shots7
5On target4
4Corners2
6Fouls12
1Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAnderlechtClub Brugge
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.450.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.490.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.440.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
box share (last 5)0.610.63
cards avg (last 5)2.603.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueLotto Park
coach days510.00601.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.150.00
congestion 21d4.006.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.14
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.401.00
corners against avg (last 5)3.804.60
corners for avg (last 5)3.405.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.913.57
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.06
dominance (last 5)0.460.51
elo1753.291749.42
elo momentum (last 5)-19.7028.81
eye test v10.350.00
eye trend v1-0.23-0.35
first sub minute (last 10)54.6051.70
form points (last 5)6.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.601.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.971.40
h2 goals (last 10)1.101.20
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.55
keeper form v10.800.80
league points83.00119.00
league rank3.001.00
matches since blank5.001.00
matches since clean sheet4.002.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.6063.60
possession avg (last 5)52.2043.60
rest days3.993.08
scorer concentration0.260.50
season ppg2.021.72
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.000.80
shots for avg (last 5)13.2013.60
skill v10.08-0.96
solidity v1-0.97-0.69
sot against avg (last 5)5.806.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.404.30
sot for avg (last 3)4.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.404.40
squad age27.9923.94
state index0.360.84
sterile dominance v10.22-1.25
threat rate (last 10)0.230.30
threat rate (last 3)0.190.25
threat rate (last 5)0.240.30
venue ppg (last 5)2.401.60
xg against avg (last 5)1.711.69
xg for avg (last 5)1.161.56