← Jupiler Pro League 2023 · Sun, Feb 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Van Driessche
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Genk win | 49% | 1.98 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.70 |
| Mechelen win | 25% | 3.89 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mechelen +0.5 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Genk +0.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.84 |
| Under | 47% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Zakaria El Ouahdi · Genk |
| 32' | ⚽ | Tolu Arokodare · Genk |
| 38' | ⚽ | Rob Schoofs · Mechelen |
| 66' | 🟨 | Ngal'ayel Mukau · Mechelen |
| 72' | 🟨 | Joseph Paintsil · Genk |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 14 |
| 2 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mechelen | Genk |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.80 |
| venue | AFAS Stadion |
| coach days | 102.00 | 651.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.37 | 2.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1555.06 | 1701.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 50.06 | -44.31 |
| eye test v1 | 0.19 | -0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | -0.81 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.40 | 60.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.72 |
| league points | 37.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.28 | 1.54 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.53 | -0.07 |
| solidity v1 | -0.16 | -0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.08 | 24.45 |
| state index | 0.59 | -0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.52 | -0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.41 | 1.49 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.57 | 1.31 |