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Mechelen 2–2 Anderlecht

← Jupiler Pro League 2023 · Thu, Feb 1, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: W. De Cremer

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Anderlecht win43%2.28
Mechelen win30%3.23
Draw27%3.52

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Mechelen +0.2550%1.93
Anderlecht +0.2550%1.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over51%1.90
Under49%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'⚽Thorgan Hazard · Anderlecht
39'🟨Mario Stroeykens · Anderlecht
53'⚽Bill Antonio · Mechelen
58'🟨Sandy Walsh · Mechelen
78'⚽Luis Vázquez · Anderlecht
90'🟨Geoffry Hairemans · Mechelen
90'⚽ (pen)Geoffry Hairemans · Mechelen

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
14Shots16
7On target4
5Corners4
10Fouls9
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMechelenAnderlecht
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.440.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.15
box share (last 5)0.710.68
cards avg (last 5)1.401.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAFAS Stadion
coach days92.00427.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.17
corner diff avg (last 5)5.60-4.00
corners against avg (last 5)3.207.20
corners for avg (last 5)8.803.20
corners volatility (last 10)4.723.54
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.07
dominance (last 5)0.510.39
elo1543.401737.35
elo momentum (last 5)43.8211.29
eye test v10.97-0.42
eye trend v1-0.48-0.40
first sub minute (last 10)61.2061.20
form points (last 5)12.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.200.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)2.401.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.430.63
h2 goals (last 10)1.001.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.50
keeper form v10.790.80
league points33.0052.00
league rank8.003.00
matches since blank5.0020.00
matches since clean sheet4.003.00
matches since win0.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.2078.40
possession avg (last 5)58.8053.20
rest days4.054.08
scorer concentration0.230.30
season ppg1.222.00
shot diff avg (last 5)0.80-6.20
shots for avg (last 5)17.409.80
skill v11.020.07
solidity v1-0.18-0.67
sot against avg (last 5)5.406.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.604.60
sot for avg (last 3)5.003.33
sot for avg (last 5)6.203.40
squad age26.2126.55
state index0.670.46
sterile dominance v10.390.69
threat rate (last 10)0.260.23
threat rate (last 3)0.230.16
threat rate (last 5)0.280.19
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.40
xg against avg (last 5)1.251.56
xg for avg (last 5)1.801.09