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Gent 2–2 Westerlo

← Jupiler Pro League 2023 · Sat, Jan 27, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: S. Bourdeaud'hui

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gent win66%1.46
Draw19%5.00
Westerlo win15%7.00

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Westerlo −1.2552%1.85
Gent −1.2548%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over58%1.66
Under42%2.29

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

17'⚽Romeo Vermant · Westerlo
37'🟨Romeo Vermant · Westerlo
44'⚽Omri Gandelman · Gent
45'🟨Bryan Reynolds · Westerlo
58'🟨Archie Brown · Gent
63'🟨Roman Neustädter · Westerlo
68'🟨Mathias Fixelles · Westerlo
80'🟨Haspolat Dogucan · Westerlo
86'🟨Julien De Sart · Gent
87'🟨Nicolas Madsen · Westerlo
87'⚽ (pen)Nicolas Madsen

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
14Shots11
5On target6
5Corners3
16Fouls19
3Yellow cards7
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGentWesterlo
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
box share (last 5)0.690.60
cards avg (last 5)0.801.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venuePlanet Group Arena
· Westerlo
88'🟨Nacer Chadli · Westerlo
90'⚽Omri Gandelman · Gent
coach days1152.0057.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d1.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.15
corner diff avg (last 5)3.200.00
corners against avg (last 5)3.602.80
corners for avg (last 5)6.802.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.183.11
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.08
dominance (last 5)0.680.40
elo1733.481551.58
elo momentum (last 5)-28.6217.72
eye test v10.45-0.35
eye trend v10.21-0.43
first sub minute (last 10)62.6064.90
form points (last 5)9.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.400.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.60
goals for avg (last 5)2.201.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.691.14
h2 goals (last 10)1.001.20
h2h win rate (last 5)0.900.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.30
keeper form v10.680.70
league points49.0028.00
league rank4.0010.00
matches since blank4.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.2077.40
possession avg (last 5)60.2045.00
rest days8.007.00
scorer concentration0.290.25
season ppg1.811.08
shot diff avg (last 5)10.60-3.20
shots for avg (last 5)18.8011.00
skill v10.82-0.17
solidity v10.38-1.02
sot against avg (last 5)3.806.40
sot for avg (last 10)5.804.10
sot for avg (last 3)7.333.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.403.20
squad age26.6225.78
state index0.95-0.02
sterile dominance v10.68-0.18
threat rate (last 10)0.270.27
threat rate (last 3)0.320.22
threat rate (last 5)0.260.24
venue ppg (last 5)2.400.80
xg against avg (last 5)1.271.66
xg for avg (last 5)1.311.39