⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

St. Gilloise 2–1 St Truiden

← Jupiler Pro League 2023 · Sun, Jan 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: W. Smet

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
St. Gilloise win66%1.50
Draw21%4.80
St Truiden win13%8.00

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
St. Gilloise −153%1.81
St Truiden −147%2.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over52%1.88
Under48%2.01

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

17'⚽Kahveh Zahiroleslam · St Truiden
37'🟨Daiki Hashioka · St Truiden
45'⚽Ross Sykes · St. Gilloise
59'🟨Joel Chima Fujita · St Truiden
77'🟨Gustaf Nilsson · St. Gilloise
83'🟨Frederic Ananou · St Truiden
90'🟨Kevin Rodriguez · St. Gilloise
90'🟨Fatih Kaya · St Truiden
90'🟨Eric Bocat · St Truiden
90'⚽Kevin Rodriguez · St. Gilloise

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
16Shots5
5On target2
7Corners1
5Fouls9
2Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSt. GilloiseSt Truiden
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.37
box share (last 5)0.680.58
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days204.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Joseph Mariën
265.00
congestion 21d0.000.00
corner diff avg (last 5)2.004.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.802.80
corners for avg (last 5)6.806.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.503.47
elo1766.791517.00
elo momentum (last 5)26.557.03
eye test v11.100.98
eye trend v10.03-0.29
first sub minute (last 10)64.0067.00
form points (last 5)13.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.000.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.080.92
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
keeper form v10.740.66
league points48.0027.00
league rank1.008.00
matches since blank6.002.00
matches since clean sheet2.001.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.4084.60
possession avg (last 5)46.8058.60
rest days25.8024.90
scorer concentration0.350.42
season ppg2.401.35
skill v1-0.160.95
solidity v10.951.16
sot against avg (last 5)3.403.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.505.80
sot for avg (last 3)6.335.33
sot for avg (last 5)6.806.80
state index1.450.06
sterile dominance v1-1.150.44
threat rate (last 10)0.310.26
threat rate (last 3)0.320.27
threat rate (last 5)0.360.29
venue ppg (last 5)3.001.00
xg against avg (last 5)0.840.64
xg for avg (last 5)1.651.50