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Club Brugge 1–3 Antwerp

← Jupiler Pro League 2023 · Sat, Dec 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: N. Verboomen

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Antwerp win40%2.38
Club Brugge win33%3.07
Draw27%3.60

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Club Brugge +0.2553%1.85
Antwerp +0.2547%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over53%1.83
Under47%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'⚽Jürgen Ekkelenkamp · Antwerp
38'🟨Edgaras Utkus · Club Brugge
45'🟨Jesper Daland · Club Brugge
57'⚽Chidera Ejuke · Antwerp
70'⚽Kévin Denkey · Club Brugge
75'🟨Christiaan Ravych · Club Brugge
86'🟨Thibo Somers · Club Brugge
90'🟨George Ilenikhena · Antwerp
90'⚽George Ilenikhena · Antwerp

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
15Shots14
2On target8
6Corners2
13Fouls6
4Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricClub BruggeAntwerp
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.260.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.250.31
box share (last 5)0.590.73
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days464.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueJan Breydelstadion
587.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.001.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.404.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.405.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.623.10
elo1597.341701.63
elo momentum (last 5)-1.778.79
eye test v10.730.40
eye trend v10.640.01
first sub minute (last 10)63.1057.00
form points (last 5)7.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.001.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.002.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.031.99
h2h win rate (last 5)0.100.90
keeper form v10.760.76
league points25.0027.00
league rank7.004.00
matches since blank2.007.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)60.6084.00
possession avg (last 5)42.0055.20
rest days5.866.80
scorer concentration0.560.26
season ppg1.561.69
skill v1-1.061.08
solidity v1-0.270.61
sot against avg (last 5)5.804.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.405.00
sot for avg (last 3)6.335.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.004.40
squad age22.92—
state index0.270.81
sterile dominance v1-2.940.57
threat rate (last 10)0.380.26
threat rate (last 3)0.520.26
threat rate (last 5)0.480.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.00
xg against avg (last 5)1.300.84
xg for avg (last 5)1.942.00