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Club Brugge 2–0 AS Eupen

← Jupiler Pro League 2023 · Sat, Nov 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Allaerts

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Club Brugge win71%1.35
Draw18%5.59
AS Eupen win12%9.00

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Club Brugge −1.551%1.88
AS Eupen −1.549%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over63%1.52
Under37%2.57

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

15'🟨Edgaras Utkus · Club Brugge
30'🟨Félix Lemaréchal · Club Brugge
41'🟨Flávio Nazinho · Club Brugge
46'⚽Alan Minda · Club Brugge
49'🟨Nils De Wilde · Club Brugge
57'🟨Jason Davidson · AS Eupen
60'🟨Jan Král · AS Eupen
90'🟨Kevin Möhwald · AS Eupen
90'⚽Kazeem Olaigbe · Club Brugge

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
30Shots6
10On target4
5Corners3
12Fouls13
4Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricClub BruggeAS Eupen
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.240.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.150.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.230.34
box share (last 5)0.590.61
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days450.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueJan Breydelstadion
177.00
congestion 21d2.001.00
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.40-2.60
corners against avg (last 5)6.405.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.003.20
corners volatility (last 10)3.352.49
elo1597.221380.80
elo momentum (last 5)23.104.35
eye test v10.32-1.05
eye trend v1-0.100.23
first sub minute (last 10)62.0057.30
form points (last 5)10.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.002.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.060.79
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
keeper form v10.790.69
league points22.0014.00
league rank6.0012.00
matches since blank0.008.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win2.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)63.8081.60
possession avg (last 5)43.4042.20
rest days13.1013.91
scorer concentration0.600.24
season ppg1.571.00
skill v1-0.94-0.48
solidity v1-0.10-2.77
sot against avg (last 5)5.608.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.202.70
sot for avg (last 3)3.003.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.202.40
squad age22.92—
state index0.49-0.78
sterile dominance v1-2.370.45
threat rate (last 10)0.400.22
threat rate (last 3)0.480.17
threat rate (last 5)0.440.16
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.20
xg against avg (last 5)1.202.63
xg for avg (last 5)1.710.75