⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Antwerp 6–0 Standard

← Jupiler Pro League 2023 · Sat, Nov 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Lardot

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Antwerp win59%1.60
Draw22%4.31
Standard win18%5.52

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Standard −152%1.88
Antwerp −148%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over57%1.67
Under43%2.27

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'⚽Vincent Janssen · Antwerp
14'⚽ (pen)Vincent Janssen · Antwerp
33'⚽Jürgen Ekkelenkamp · Antwerp
38'🟨Zinho Vanheusden · Standard
41'⚽Arbnor Muja · Antwerp
49'🟨Jelle Bataille · Antwerp
74'⚽George Ilenikhena · Antwerp
78'🟨Moussa Djenepo · Standard
79'🟨Ritchie De Laet · Antwerp
86'⚽Michel Ange Balikwisha · Antwerp
89'🟨Zeno Van Den Bosch · Antwerp

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

4Half-time score0
15Shots2
9On target0
6Corners2
13Fouls10
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAntwerpStandard
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.34—
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.35—
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.34—
box share (last 5)0.72—
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days559.00163.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBosuilstadion
congestion 21d3.003.00
corner diff avg (last 5)2.20-0.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.005.00
corners for avg (last 5)6.204.20
corners volatility (last 10)3.223.07
elo1693.331517.46
elo momentum (last 5)-13.5929.79
eye test v11.030.18
eye trend v1-0.150.21
first sub minute (last 10)57.1062.30
form points (last 5)7.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.60
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.431.07
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
keeper form v1—0.76
league points20.0017.00
league rank6.009.00
matches since blank4.005.00
matches since clean sheet4.005.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)85.6076.80
possession avg (last 5)57.6046.80
rest days6.806.00
scorer concentration0.300.27
season ppg1.541.31
skill v11.53-0.19
solidity v1-0.24-0.82
sot against avg (last 5)4.606.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.805.10
sot for avg (last 3)4.006.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.605.40
squad age—21.65
state index0.600.19
sterile dominance v10.49-0.18
threat rate (last 10)0.240.24
threat rate (last 3)0.210.26
threat rate (last 5)0.280.25
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.60
xg against avg (last 5)1.421.49
xg for avg (last 5)2.351.34