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Charleroi 3–2 Antwerp

← Jupiler Pro League 2023 · Sat, Oct 21, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: W. De Cremer

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Antwerp win49%2.10
Draw26%3.75
Charleroi win25%4.25

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Antwerp +0.552%1.88
Charleroi +0.548%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over54%1.79
Under46%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

16'🟨Stefan Knežević · Charleroi
50'⚽Nikola Štulić · Charleroi
56'⚽Jürgen Ekkelenkamp · Antwerp
60'🟨Marco Ilaimaharitra · Charleroi
65'⚽ (pen)Marco Ilaimaharitra · Charleroi
77'⚽George Ilenikhena · Antwerp
87'🟨Michel Ange Balikwisha · Antwerp
88'⚽ (pen)Marco Ilaimaharitra · Charleroi
90'🟨Toby Alderweireld · Antwerp

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
10Shots11
5On target5
5Corners2
6Fouls12
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCharleroiAntwerp
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.480.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.450.28
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.630.60
cards avg (last 5)1.600.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade du Pays de Charleroi
coach days354.00538.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.07
corner diff avg (last 5)4.807.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.801.80
corners for avg (last 5)9.609.00
corners volatility (last 10)4.192.74
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.04
dominance (last 5)0.510.70
elo1542.421733.94
elo momentum (last 5)9.70-15.37
eye test v10.661.06
eye trend v10.080.37
first sub minute (last 10)58.8058.80
form points (last 5)9.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.800.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.600.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.672.06
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.45
keeper form v10.710.72
league points14.0019.00
league rank9.007.00
matches since blank8.001.00
matches since clean sheet3.001.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.0089.00
possession avg (last 5)53.0064.80
rest days15.0013.20
scorer concentration0.330.36
season ppg1.081.58
shot diff avg (last 5)0.6010.60
shots for avg (last 5)14.4018.40
skill v10.292.05
solidity v1-0.821.85
sot against avg (last 5)5.602.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.404.70
sot for avg (last 3)5.006.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.605.40
squad age26.6024.71
state index0.200.82
sterile dominance v10.020.95
threat rate (last 10)0.250.24
threat rate (last 3)0.230.33
threat rate (last 5)0.280.29
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.40
xg against avg (last 5)1.630.56
xg for avg (last 5)1.302.31