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St. Gilloise 4–1 AS Eupen

← Jupiler Pro League 2023 · Fri, Oct 20, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: L. D'hondt

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
St. Gilloise win79%1.25
Draw14%8.10
AS Eupen win8%14.47

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
St. Gilloise −253%1.82
AS Eupen −247%2.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over71%1.35
Under29%3.40

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

27'⚽Gustaf Nilsson · St. Gilloise
31'⚽Mathias Rasmussen · St. Gilloise
63'🟨Kevin Möhwald · AS Eupen
68'⚽Mohamed Amoura · St. Gilloise
81'⚽Victor Pálsson · AS Eupen
82'⚽Elton Kabangu · St. Gilloise
85'🟨Nathan Bitumazala · AS Eupen
90'🟨Nathan Bitumazala · AS Eupen
90'🟥Nathan Bitumazala · AS Eupen

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
21Shots6
11On target1
3Corners1
14Fouls14
0Yellow cards3
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSt. GilloiseAS Eupen
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.440.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.450.25
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.650.65
cards avg (last 5)1.601.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Joseph Mariën
coach days111.00141.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.170.09
corner diff avg (last 5)3.40-1.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.605.40
corners for avg (last 5)8.004.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.442.27
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.14
dominance (last 5)0.700.34
elo1779.781428.45
elo momentum (last 5)23.34-36.32
eye test v10.89-0.77
eye trend v1-0.21-0.17
first sub minute (last 10)65.6056.40
form points (last 5)12.000.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.20-1.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.402.60
goals for avg (last 5)2.600.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.371.25
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.500.20
keeper form v1—0.59
league points28.0013.00
league rank2.0011.00
matches since blank1.004.00
matches since clean sheet0.0010.00
matches since win0.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.2082.00
possession avg (last 5)40.2044.60
rest days12.0612.20
scorer concentration0.270.25
season ppg2.331.08
shot diff avg (last 5)9.80-9.60
shots for avg (last 5)17.0010.00
skill v1-0.46-0.16
solidity v1-0.09-2.48
sot against avg (last 5)4.207.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.803.40
sot for avg (last 3)5.332.67
sot for avg (last 5)6.202.40
squad age26.4925.13
state index1.16-1.10
sterile dominance v1-1.390.01
threat rate (last 10)0.360.27
threat rate (last 3)0.340.22
threat rate (last 5)0.330.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.20
xg against avg (last 5)1.432.50
xg for avg (last 5)1.851.00