← Jupiler Pro League 2023 · Sun, Sep 24, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Van Driessche
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Club Brugge win | 38% | 2.57 |
| St. Gilloise win | 36% | 2.70 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.66 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Club Brugge +0 | 51% | 1.90 |
| St. Gilloise +0 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.75 |
| Under | 45% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 15 |
| 1 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand