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AS Eupen 1–3 Standard

← Jupiler Pro League 2023 · Sun, Sep 17, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: J. Lardot

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Standard win39%2.46
AS Eupen win33%2.93
Draw27%3.51

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
AS Eupen +0.2554%1.79
Standard +0.2546%2.12

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over53%1.81
Under47%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

22'🟨Isaac Hayden · Standard
43'🟨Steven Alzate · Standard
45'⚽Wilfried Kanga · Standard
45'⚽Hayao Kawabe · Standard
58'🟨Hayao Kawabe · Standard
75'⚽Kamal Sowah · Standard
80'⚽Alfreð Finnbogason · AS Eupen
88'🟨Isaac Christie-Davies · AS Eupen
90'🟨Steven Alzate · Standard
90'🟥Steven Alzate · Standard

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
13Shots16
3On target6
6Corners6
5Fouls12
1Yellow cards4
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAS EupenStandard
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.250.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.34
box share (last 5)0.530.70
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days108.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueKehrwegstadion
108.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.40-2.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.807.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.404.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.282.56
elo1400.121476.12
elo momentum (last 5)40.49-13.97
eye test v1-0.52-0.60
eye trend v10.580.34
first sub minute (last 10)55.9060.10
form points (last 5)9.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.250.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
keeper form v10.680.66
league points10.003.00
league rank8.0014.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet4.0011.00
matches since win1.0013.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.8074.00
possession avg (last 5)37.2050.40
rest days14.8014.70
scorer concentration0.25—
season ppg1.670.50
skill v1-0.98-0.62
solidity v1-0.86-0.42
sot against avg (last 5)5.004.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.003.30
sot for avg (last 3)4.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.403.60
squad age—21.65
state index-0.13-0.96
sterile dominance v1-1.080.12
threat rate (last 10)0.270.21
threat rate (last 3)0.320.23
threat rate (last 5)0.280.22
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.40
xg against avg (last 5)1.881.75
xg for avg (last 5)1.100.71