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Club Brugge 2–0 Charleroi

← Jupiler Pro League 2023 · Sat, Aug 5, 04:15 PM UTC · ref: L. D'hondt

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Club Brugge win55%1.76
Draw24%4.03
Charleroi win21%4.52

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Charleroi −0.7551%1.92
Club Brugge −0.7549%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over58%1.65
Under42%2.30

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

16'⚽Thibo Somers · Club Brugge
43'⚽ (pen)Kévin Denkey · Club Brugge
58'🟨Stefan Knežević · Charleroi
76'🟨Mehdi Boukamir · Charleroi
80'🟨Daan Heymans · Charleroi

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
19Shots8
3On target3
4Corners5
11Fouls13
0Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricClub BruggeCharleroi
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.42
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.42
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.780.70
cards avg (last 5)1.002.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueJan Breydelstadion
coach days338.00277.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.10
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.18
corner diff avg (last 5)0.20-1.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.605.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.803.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.042.39
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.24
dominance (last 5)0.660.53
elo1663.651549.01
elo momentum (last 5)16.01-5.87
eye test v10.050.42
eye trend v1-0.21-0.14
first sub minute (last 10)50.3052.30
form points (last 5)8.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.00-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.60
goals volatility (last 10)2.371.06
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.30
keeper form v10.730.80
matches since blank1.007.00
matches since clean sheet2.006.00
matches since win2.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)63.6076.80
possession avg (last 5)38.6048.20
rest days5.997.00
season ppg0.501.00
shot diff avg (last 5)11.601.20
shots for avg (last 5)21.2012.80
skill v1-1.87-0.09
sot against avg (last 5)5.005.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.404.90
sot for avg (last 3)5.334.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.805.20
squad age23.6024.53
state index0.81-0.11
sterile dominance v1-1.74-0.15
threat rate (last 10)0.340.25
threat rate (last 3)0.350.24
threat rate (last 5)0.330.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.602.00