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Bastia 1–1 Paris FC

← Ligue 2 2023 · Fri, May 17, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: M. Lesage

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Paris FC win52%1.83
Draw25%4.00
Bastia win23%4.40

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Paris FC +0.553%1.83
Bastia +0.547%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over51%1.88
Under49%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

26'🟨Timothée Kolodziejczak · Paris FC
29'⚽Timothée Kolodziejczak · Paris FC
45'⚽ (pen)Migouel Alfarela · Bastia
74'🟨Migouel Alfarela · Bastia
78'🟨Benjamin Santelli · Bastia

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
16Shots7
4On target3
7Corners3
10Fouls9
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBastiaParis FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.450.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.490.48
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.420.43
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.720.64
cards avg (last 5)2.601.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Armand-Césari
coach days77.00351.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.170.10
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.401.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.403.80
corners for avg (last 5)3.004.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.752.38
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.16
dominance (last 5)0.500.60
elo1486.981555.07
elo momentum (last 5)12.935.53
eye test v10.120.84
eye trend v10.050.06
first sub minute (last 10)59.5054.90
form points (last 5)9.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.971.03
h2 goals (last 10)0.901.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.25
keeper form v10.740.78
league points57.0064.00
league rank8.004.00
matches since blank8.001.00
matches since clean sheet3.009.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.0086.60
possession avg (last 5)49.8060.20
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.260.19
season ppg1.391.56
shot diff avg (last 5)0.804.80
shots for avg (last 5)11.6013.60
skill v1-0.161.52
sot against avg (last 5)4.003.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.904.90
sot for avg (last 3)5.005.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.405.80
squad age27.6826.99
state index0.080.22
sterile dominance v1-0.011.07
threat rate (last 10)0.220.23
threat rate (last 3)0.200.19
threat rate (last 5)0.240.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.40