← Ligue 2 2023 · Fri, May 10, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: R. Landry
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Pau FC win | 54% | 1.80 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.98 |
| Bastia win | 22% | 4.54 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bastia −0.75 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Pau FC −0.75 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 1.66 |
| Under | 42% | 2.29 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Tino Costa · Pau FC |
| 7' | ⚽ | Mons Bassouamina · Pau FC |
| 55' | 🟨 | Jean Ruiz · Pau FC |
| 70' | ⚽ | Migouel Alfarela · Bastia |
| 74' | 🟨 | Louis Mouton · Pau FC |
| 76' | 🟨 | Christophe Vincent · Bastia |
| 83' | ⚽ | Migouel Alfarela · Bastia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Florian Bianchini · Bastia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 13 |
| 1 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 19 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pau FC | Bastia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.49 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stade Nouste Camp |
| coach days | 1409.00 | 70.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 1.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 1.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1469.45 | 1475.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.62 | 14.12 |
| eye test v1 | 0.34 | 0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.36 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.70 | 57.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | — |
| league points | 54.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.00 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 7.03 | 7.03 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 1.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.84 | -0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.39 | 25.43 |
| state index | -0.38 | -0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.61 | -0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |