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Pau FC 1–2 Guingamp

← Ligue 2 2023 · Sat, Apr 27, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Valnet

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Guingamp win36%2.71
Pau FC win35%2.76
Draw29%3.25

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Guingamp +051%1.93
Pau FC +049%1.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.74
Over45%2.16

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

15'⚽Hugo Picard · Guingamp
56'🟨Xavier Kouassi · Pau FC
56'🟨Maxime Sivis · Guingamp
88'🟨Kouadio Ange Ahoussou · Pau FC
90'🟨Khalid Boutaïb · Pau FC
90'🟨Jacques Siwe · Guingamp
90'⚽Mons Bassouamina · Pau FC
90'⚽ (og)Jordy Gaspar · Guingamp

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
11Shots15
3On target3
8Corners3
7Fouls11
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricPau FCGuingamp
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.460.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.440.25
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
box share (last 5)0.680.63
cards avg (last 5)0.801.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Nouste Camp
coach days1396.001092.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d5.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.190.03
corner diff avg (last 5)0.801.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.004.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.805.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.963.59
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.08
dominance (last 5)0.580.63
elo1487.121499.85
elo momentum (last 5)28.81-18.73
eye test v10.830.07
eye trend v10.100.13
first sub minute (last 10)60.4060.20
form points (last 5)9.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.20-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.60
goals for avg (last 5)2.400.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.151.23
h2 goals (last 10)1.100.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.20
keeper form v10.640.71
league points54.0055.00
league rank9.007.00
matches since blank7.001.00
matches since clean sheet2.002.00
matches since win2.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.2077.00
possession avg (last 5)51.2048.40
rest days3.933.93
scorer concentration0.240.27
season ppg1.421.45
shot diff avg (last 5)3.006.60
shots for avg (last 5)13.8015.40
skill v10.38-0.08
sot against avg (last 5)3.402.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.304.30
sot for avg (last 3)6.005.00
sot for avg (last 5)6.004.20
squad age27.4327.05
state index0.20-0.14
sterile dominance v10.02-0.62
threat rate (last 10)0.250.32
threat rate (last 3)0.270.31
threat rate (last 5)0.270.32
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.40